September 2026 GTA Real Estate Update: Lower Prices, Fewer Listings and Buyers Taking Their Time

If you’ve been watching the GTA real estate market and wondering whether to make a move or wait, September probably didn’t make that decision any easier.

Prices remained below last year’s levels, but sales also slowed. Buyers have reasons to look, yet uncertainty around the economy, job security and borrowing costs is keeping many from committing.

For sellers, fewer new listings might sound encouraging. But with buyers still cautious, getting the price right remains a big part of getting a home sold.

September’s Numbers at a Glance

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, here’s how September 2026 compared with September 2025:

• Home sales: 5,040, down 9%
• New listings: 16,500, down 14.4%
• Average selling price: $1,006,409, down 5.1%
• MLS® HPI benchmark price: down 4.7%

After adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, sales and new listings also declined from August. Both the average selling price and benchmark price edged lower as well.

The average price reflects the homes that sold that month. The benchmark helps track price changes while accounting for differences in the types of homes selling. Both measures were lower than a year ago.

Why Are Buyers Still Waiting?

A lower purchase price helps, but it doesn’t answer every question a buyer has.

Will their job remain secure? What will their monthly payments look like? How much room will they have in their budget after closing?

For a lot of households, those questions matter more than a headline about falling prices. Someone can want to buy and still feel that they need more certainty before making an offer.

That helps explain why lower prices haven’t automatically translated into more sales.

What This Means if You’re Buying

If you’re financially ready, this market is worth paying attention to. Lower prices than last year may bring more homes within your budget or give you a chance to reconsider an area you thought was out of reach.

My advice is to start with what you can comfortably afford, then look closely at the properties that fit.

• Review recent sold prices, not just asking prices.
• Get clear on your financing and total monthly costs.
• Consider the home’s condition and any work you’ll need to budget for.
• Make your offer based on the property and its competition.

You don’t need to predict the exact bottom of the market to make a good purchase. You do need to know what you’re buying and be comfortable with the commitment.

What This Means if You’re Selling

New listings fell more sharply than sales compared with last September. That’s worth watching, but it doesn’t tell us how much competition your particular home faces.

Before setting a price, we need to look at what buyers can purchase nearby, what has actually sold and which listings are sitting.

A home that looks good online still needs to make sense when a buyer compares it with the alternatives.

Preparation matters. So do the photos, showing condition and asking price. Getting those things right from the start gives buyers a reason to book a showing and seriously consider your property.

Buying and Selling in the Same Market

If you need to sell before buying, it’s easy to focus on what your current home might have sold for a year ago.

But the home you want to buy may also cost less.

The difference between your sale and purchase prices, along with moving costs and financing, will tell you much more about whether the move works. It’s worth running those numbers before assuming you should wait.

What’s Happening in Your Neighbourhood?

The GTA average is useful for understanding the broader market. It won’t tell you what your Mississauga semi, Toronto condo or Oakville detached home should sell for.

That takes a closer look at your neighbourhood and the homes buyers are comparing with yours.

With over 15 years of experience in GTA real estate, I can help you work through those details. If you’re thinking about buying, selling or investing, give me a call. We can look at your options together, even if your move is still a few months away.

Michael Kelly
Sales Representative
Sutton Group Realty Systems Inc., Brokerage
Independently Owned and Operated

📱 647-408-5226
📧 info@michaelkellyhomes.com
🌐 michaelkellyhomes.com

Source: TRREB September 2026 market release, published October 6, 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are with September 2025.